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Showing posts from April, 2020

Global Trade and India in COVID-19 Times

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Source: The Economic Times  COVID-19 is inflicting high human and economic costs worldwide, as a result of which the world economy is projected to contract at 3 per cent this year. Advanced economies like US, Eurozone countries and Japan already mirrors the negative growth projection of the global economy. The pandemic’s economic adversity is predicted to be relatively lesser for the Emerging Markets. The Indian economy is projected to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2020 as per the IMF. Global Supply Chain Disruption and India’s Contracting Exports With this global economic growth disruption, the global supply chain has been severely impacted. As most international borders are sealed to contain the spread of virus and there is complete isolation, world trade is projected to decelerate at 11 per cent. Weak external demand due to supply chain disruptions has already hit Indian exports severely, and they contracted by 34 per cent in March 2020 on a y-o-y basis. While the oil pri

The COVID-19 Shock: Some Thoughts on Changing Consumer Behaviour in the Indian Economy

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Wrecking the Economy (Picture credit: Hindu Businessline) The current COVID-19 pandemic will be recorded as the one of the darkest phases in global history, and will be remembered for many years to come for the huge economic losses that the economies across the globe incurred. Mirroring the global impact, this health emergency has imposed a huge economic burden on the Indian economy, as the on-going lockdown has impacted all the non-essential businesses and services which has adversely impacted the informal sector and its workers. With missing economic activity and temporarily shut businesses, the income levels have taken a massive hit, something highlighted by a telephonic survey of around 1,750 adults across Delhi NCR conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) during April 3-6, 2020. As per the survey, 84.5 per cent households reported a fall in their income levels. Negative Consumer Sentiment Contracting income levels are expected to h